{"id":13978,"date":"2022-01-27T02:53:43","date_gmt":"2022-01-27T07:53:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/intosai.nclud.com\/journal-entry\/nao-lithuania-assesses-2022-draft-budget-identifies-trends-and-risks\/"},"modified":"2023-05-04T01:45:15","modified_gmt":"2023-05-04T05:45:15","slug":"nao-lithuania-assesses-2022-draft-budget-identifies-trends-and-risks","status":"publish","type":"journal-entry","link":"https:\/\/intosai.nclud.com\/fr\/journal-entry\/nao-lithuania-assesses-2022-draft-budget-identifies-trends-and-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"L’ONL Lituanie \u00e9value le projet de budget 2022, identifie les tendances et les risques"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Pendant la pand\u00e9mie de COVID-19, l’Office national d’audit (ONA) de Lituanie a continu\u00e9 \u00e0 remplir efficacement les trois fonctions qui lui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9es : audit externe, institution fiscale et audit des investissements de l’UE. L’une des t\u00e2ches essentielles du NAO consistait \u00e0 \u00e9valuer le projet de budget 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L’objectif du NAO \u00e9tait non seulement de projeter l’\u00e9volution du solde des administrations publiques et de la dette, mais aussi d’analyser les facteurs de risque affectant le syst\u00e8me de retraite et l’impact du changement climatique sur la viabilit\u00e9 budg\u00e9taire. L’\u00e9valuation du NAO a r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 les d\u00e9fis auxquels les finances publiques du pays pourraient \u00eatre confront\u00e9es \u00e0 long terme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pas de recettes durables pour les d\u00e9penses \u00e0 long terme<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

La pand\u00e9mie a n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 d’importantes d\u00e9penses non planifi\u00e9es et \u00e0 court terme dans le secteur public. En r\u00e9ponse, l’Union europ\u00e9enne a temporairement r\u00e9duit l’application des r\u00e8gles de discipline budg\u00e9taire entre 2020 et 2022 et a activ\u00e9 la clause g\u00e9n\u00e9rale de sauvegarde du pacte de stabilit\u00e9 et de croissance, permettant aux \u00c9tats membres de s’\u00e9carter des exigences budg\u00e9taires. Cette clause pose \u00e9galement la condition que, pour les mesures de d\u00e9penses permanentes non COVID-19, les \u00c9tats membres doivent fournir des recettes permanentes qui garantissent un impact neutre sur les finances publiques \u00e0 moyen terme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Apr\u00e8s avoir examin\u00e9 les indicateurs financiers de la Lituanie pour 2022, le NAO a constat\u00e9 que les d\u00e9penses publiques temporaires li\u00e9es au COVID-19 semblent avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 remplac\u00e9es par des d\u00e9penses \u00e0 long terme croissantes pour lesquelles il n’existe pas de sources de revenus durables. Ces d\u00e9penses \u00e0 long terme repr\u00e9sentent en moyenne 1 % du produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB) par an sur la p\u00e9riode 2017-2021. Avant la pand\u00e9mie, ces d\u00e9penses \u00e9taient couvertes par des recettes cycliques non viables, en raison de la croissance de l’\u00e9conomie lituanienne plus rapide que son PIB potentiel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Certains indicateurs macro\u00e9conomiques actuels, tels que l’augmentation des p\u00e9nuries de main-d’\u0153uvre dans l’industrie, le commerce, les services et la construction, l’utilisation record de la capacit\u00e9 de production industrielle et l’acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de l’inflation de base, montrent que l’\u00e9conomie d\u00e9passe son potentiel et que cette tendance devrait se poursuivre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En tant qu’institution fiscale, le NAO a observ\u00e9 que, gr\u00e2ce aux mesures COVID-19, l’\u00e9conomie du pays a connu l’impulsion fiscale positive la plus importante depuis 2007. Toutefois, si l’on exclut l’impact de ces mesures, la politique budg\u00e9taire de la Lituanie tend vers la procyclicit\u00e9. Cela pose le risque de pressions inflationnistes encore plus fortes et d’une surchauffe de l’\u00e9conomie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Risques d\u00e9mographiques affectant le syst\u00e8me de pension<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Dans le cadre de son \u00e9valuation du projet de budget, le NAO a analys\u00e9 les risques qui p\u00e8sent sur la viabilit\u00e9 des pensions. Le NAO a constat\u00e9 qu’\u00e0 long terme, le vieillissement de la population du pays – avec une diminution pr\u00e9vue du nombre de personnes employ\u00e9es et une augmentation du nombre de personnes en \u00e2ge de prendre leur retraite – posera des probl\u00e8mes pour les finances publiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L’ON a utilis\u00e9 EUROPOP2019<\/a> (sc\u00e9nario de base) pour cette analyse. Selon les projections, le rel\u00e8vement de l’\u00e2ge de la retraite d’ici \u00e0 2026 r\u00e9duit les risques. Mais \u00e0 long terme, l’important segment de la population \u00e2g\u00e9 de 50 \u00e0 64 ans signifie que les d\u00e9fis augmenteront proportionnellement \u00e0 l’accroissement des engagements de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 sociale en mati\u00e8re de prestations de retraite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c0 l’inverse, la population en \u00e2ge de travailler a diminu\u00e9 au cours des deux derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies, mais son emploi a l\u00e9g\u00e8rement \u00e9volu\u00e9 en raison de l’augmentation du taux d’activit\u00e9. Dans le sc\u00e9nario favorable d’EUROPOP2019, qui suppose une migration nette nulle, le nombre de personnes employ\u00e9es devrait diminuer. En outre, \u00e0 mesure que la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 vieillit, sa productivit\u00e9 diminue, ce qui affecte les indicateurs budg\u00e9taires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Une autre tendance pertinente est que les hommes en \u00e2ge de travailler en Lituanie ont subi la plus grande perte totale d’esp\u00e9rance de vie. Cela pourrait \u00e9galement avoir un impact n\u00e9gatif sur le financement potentiel du syst\u00e8me de retraite et poser des probl\u00e8mes aux indicateurs financiers des administrations publiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tous ces facteurs sociod\u00e9mographiques soulignent la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de disposer de sources de revenus durables \u00e0 long terme. Lors de l’adoption de changements susceptibles d’affecter la viabilit\u00e9 du syst\u00e8me de retraite, il est important de tenir compte des d\u00e9fis d\u00e9mographiques et des pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 long terme des recettes et des d\u00e9penses des administrations publiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gestion des risques li\u00e9s au changement climatique<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Dans un avenir proche, les finances publiques seront expos\u00e9es non seulement aux pressions exerc\u00e9es par le vieillissement de la population, mais aussi aux effets du changement climatique, qui peuvent entra\u00eener d’importants dommages sociaux et \u00e9conomiques. L’adaptation au changement climatique et la lutte contre celui-ci n\u00e9cessiteront des ressources publiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bien que l’Organisation de coop\u00e9ration et de d\u00e9veloppement \u00e9conomiques (OCDE) affirme que les cons\u00e9quences du changement climatique ne sont pas suffisamment claires pour \u00eatre prises en compte dans les \u00e9valuations de la viabilit\u00e9 budg\u00e9taire, les risques les plus pressants peuvent \u00eatre identifi\u00e9s. Il s’agit notamment de l’augmentation des d\u00e9penses publiques due \u00e0 des conditions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques extr\u00eames, qui peuvent endommager les infrastructures et avoir un impact sur l’activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique. Les co\u00fbts peuvent \u00e9galement augmenter en raison de la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 d’adapter une infrastructure plus conviviale. Une transition r\u00e9ussie vers une \u00e9conomie sans \u00e9missions r\u00e9duirait les risques budg\u00e9taires \u00e0 long terme.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pendant la pand\u00e9mie de COVID-19, l’Office national d’audit (ONA) de Lituanie a continu\u00e9 \u00e0 remplir efficacement les trois fonctions qui lui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9es : audit externe, institution fiscale et audit des investissements de l’UE. L’une des t\u00e2ches essentielles du NAO consistait \u00e0 \u00e9valuer le projet de budget 2022. L’objectif du NAO \u00e9tait de…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":50,"featured_media":7799,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"journal-categories":[2113,2068],"content-tags":[858,1913],"country":[2989],"region":[2129],"section":[2642],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-13978","journal-entry","type-journal-entry","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","journal-categories-hiver-2022","journal-categories-nouvelles-en-bref","content-tags-covid-19-fr","content-tags-levaluation-des-risques","country-lithuania-fr","region-eurosai-fr","section-news-in-brief-fr"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nL'ONL Lituanie \u00e9value le projet de budget 2022, identifie les tendances et les risques - INTOSAI Journal<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"L'ONL Lituanie \u00e9value le projet de budget 2022, identifie les tendances et les risques - INTOSAI Journal\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Pendant la pand\u00e9mie de COVID-19, l'Office national d'audit (ONA) de Lituanie a continu\u00e9 \u00e0 remplir efficacement les trois fonctions qui lui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9es : audit externe, institution fiscale et audit des investissements de l'UE. 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